Now with SPCX + merger-ratio math

Know what your TSLA is really worth.

The TSLA holder's calculator. Model your TSLA and SPCX shares at any price target, see the after-tax number, and test what a hypothetical merger exchange ratio would turn your shares into.

Tesla × SpaceX merger tracker: where talks stand, with sources 
Next catalyst·Shareholder meetingTentative

2026 annual shareholder meeting

Sun, Dec 6, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST (estimated)

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Days
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Hours
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Min
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Sec

Date not set by Tesla. Analysts (Barclays) expect it no later than Dec 6. Countdown shows that outside date. Source

Value at target
$57,500
TSLA $500 · SPCX $300+103% ROIFive-Figure Holder
Share result card →
$20.0K$40.0K$60.0K$80.0KCost basis$0$200$400$600$800
TSLA position value by target priceEducational estimate
Your holdings
Top 25% Holder
$
$
Latest: Oct 30 close
Value today
$40.0K
$
IPO priced at $135 (Jun 11, 2026)
$
Latest: Oct 30 close
Value today
$3,368

400 more TSLA shares to the next tier.

Prices fill in from the latest quote (as-of time under each). Type your own to override. Everything stays in your browser.

Price targets
As of Oct 21, 2026
TSLA targets
TSLA target$500
SPCX targets
SPCX target$300
TSLA value
$50.0K
Gain
$29.1K
Tax (fed. 23.8%)
$6,932
After-tax
$50.6K

Chips are public calls (analyst targets are 12-month; Baron and ARK are long-range) checked against their sources on Oct 21, 2026. Hover a chip for who and when. Scenario chips are round numbers, not anyone’s forecast. None of this is advice. Tax = top federal long-term rate (20% + 3.8% NIIT) on gains; bracket-aware federal and state tax on your real lots is in My Exit Plan (Pro).

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My Exit Plan · Pro

Turn this number into a plan.

Your 100 TSLA shares, staged across three price levels up to $500, with federal and state tax worked out at every step. Pro runs it on your real lots, bracket and state.

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PricePortionEst. taxKept
$430Level 125%25 sh−$1,035$9,715
Levels 2–3 and your plan total are in Pro

Illustration from your inputs: 25% of shares per level, held over a year, married filing jointly, $150K other income, CA tax. A planning estimate, not investment or tax advice.

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Merger scenario
Hypothetical · no deal announced
Premium paid to TSLA holders+0%

Your 100 TSLA shares would become

296.8 SPCX

at 2.968 SPCX per TSLA (+0.0% vs. today). Value parity today ≈ 2.97.

Total SPCX after
321.8
Value change today
$0
At SPCX $300
$96.5K
…after tax if sold
$80.3K
Why “0.7” doesn't mean 0.7 shares

The widely quoted ~0.7 (Barclays, Oct 2026) compares company values: Tesla's market cap ÷ SpaceX's. What you'd actually receive is an exchange ratio — SPCX shares per TSLA share — which depends on share prices. At today's prices, simply matching value takes about 3.0 SPCX per TSLA. Receiving 0.7 shares would be a -76% haircut. Full explainer.

Share counts: TSLA 3.950B (Jul 16, 2026); SPCX 13.182B (Jul 28, 2026). After-tax assumes a later sale at 23.8% on the gain over your combined cost; many all-stock deals are structured as tax-free reorganizations, so the exchange itself may not be taxable.

Combined portfolio
Today
$43.3K
At targets
$57.5K
Invested
$28.4K
Unrealized today
$15.0K
TSLA 87%SPCX 13%

Allocation at your target prices.

Buy the dip

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

$
Cost
$3,400
Worth at $500
$5,000
Profit from dip
$1,600
New avg cost
$258.18

New total: 110 shares · dip ROI +47%

Educational tool, not investment or tax advice. Exit Velocity is an educational calculator. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice, and it is not affiliated with Tesla, Inc. or Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Scenarios are hypothetical; no Tesla–SpaceX merger has been announced.
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How it works
  1. 1. Enter shares, cost and today's price. Nothing leaves your browser.
  2. 2. Drag the targets. The chart shows your position at every price up to your target and beyond.
  3. 3. Flip on Reality Mode. Top federal long-term rate on gains, so you see take-home rather than headline.
  4. 4. Share a card. A clean image for X with your share count and target — never your cost basis.